Guide / Resources / Theory of Change

Core tool

Theory of Change

in 10 minutes-ish

GuidePurposePurposeful

why 10 minutes?

Why a 10-minute Theory of Change?

Understanding and communicating what you do and the value you create is important.

A Theory of Change is one way of doing this. But often it's seen as something hard, complicated, something that needs an expert. Even the name comes across that way.

And yes, there are times when outside help is useful. But the experts you need are the people in and around your work.

So I challenged groups to create a Theory of Change in 10 minutes. Rather than frameworks, I gave them three metaphors — Journeys, Stones and ripples, Seeds and plants — and set them away.

Will it be perfect? No. Will it need doing again? Yes. But that's kind of the point.

The best tools are the ones you use. Making it easy for everyone to do this stuff, naturally and ongoing, can really help.

three metaphors

Three ways to tell your story

Pick the one that feels right for your work. Each asks the same core questions in a different way.

01

The Journey

Where are we now? Where do we want to get to? What's the path? How do we know we're getting closer?
02

The Ripple

We drop a stone. It creates ripples. Those ripples spread outward into the wider world.
03

The Seed

What are we planting? What does it need? What develops? What's the harvest?

metaphor 01 · the journey

The Journey

you are heredestination
There are many paths — knowing you're making progress is what matters.
01

Where are we now?

02

Where do we want to get to?

03

What's the path?

04

How do we know we're getting closer?

metaphor 02 · the ripple

The Ripple

the water · the challengelonger-term changeimmediate effectsthe stone
0

The water

The context you work in — the challenge, the community, the need. Where you drop the stone shapes how ripples spread.

1

We drop a stone

The work we do, the activities we deliver.

2

It creates ripples

The immediate effects we can see and measure.

3

Those ripples spread outward

The longer-term change in the wider world.

metaphor 03 · the seed

The Seed

Growth takes time and the right conditions, but we can describe what we expect to see.

01

Seed

What are we planting?
02

Conditions

What does it need?
03

Growth

What develops?
04

Fruit

What's the harvest?

putting it together

Four simple questions

Instead of "inputs, outputs, outcomes, impact" — try these.

01

What's the challenge?

The problem you see in the world that motivates your work.

02

What would better look like?

The change you want to see — your vision.

03

What can we actually do?

Your activities — the things within your control.

04

How would we know it's working?

Signs of progress you can point to.

resilience

Why this matters

Why do we exist?

Not just "what do we do" — but why it matters.

What would be lost if we weren't here?

Your unique contribution to the change you want to see.

A compass for hard times

When purpose is clear, you have a compass for hard choices.

A clear theory of change is the backbone of your Purpose pillar.

The best tools are the ones you use.

Make it easy. Make it natural. Make it ongoing.