Guide / Resources / Pre-mortem

Core tool

Pre-mortem

imagine it's already gone wrong

ToolPeopleBold

what it is

Imagine it's already gone wrong

Before you commit to a plan, picture it a year from now — and it has failed, badly. Working backwards from imagined failure surfaces the risks that optimism hides, while there's still time to do something about them.

It's not pessimism — it's rehearsal. It's far easier to act on a risk you've already imagined out loud.

how to run it

Run a pre-mortem

1

Set the scene

"It's a year from now. This plan has failed badly." Say it plainly; let it land.

2

Write reasons, silently

Everyone lists why it failed — a few minutes, alone, no discussion yet. Quiet writing beats loud brainstorming.

3

Share and group

Go round, read them out, cluster the similar ones. No defending yet.

4

Prioritise by likelihood × impact

Place each risk on the grid below. The top-right corner is where to look first.

5

Mitigate and own

For the serious, likely risks: agree what you'll do and who holds it.

prioritise

Likelihood × impact

Impact (low → high)
Watch
Unlikely but serious. Have a plan ready, just in case.
Act now
Likely and serious. Mitigate before you start.
Park
Unlikely and minor. Note it and move on.
Manage
Likely but minor. Build routine handling into the plan.
Likelihood (low → high)

reflect

Questions to sit with

01

What's the most plausible way this fails?

02

Which risks are we quietly hoping won't happen?

03

For each serious risk — what would reduce it, and who owns that?

04

What early signal would tell us a risk is becoming real?

resilience

Why this matters

Naming risks out loud, early, is a mark of bold, accountable governance — and of an organisation that plans for the ups and downs rather than being surprised by them.

A pre-mortem gives everyone permission to voice the doubt they were keeping polite about. That candour, done kindly, is what makes a plan robust.