Core tool
Pre-mortem
imagine it's already gone wrong
what it is
Imagine it's already gone wrong
Before you commit to a plan, picture it a year from now — and it has failed, badly. Working backwards from imagined failure surfaces the risks that optimism hides, while there's still time to do something about them.
It's not pessimism — it's rehearsal. It's far easier to act on a risk you've already imagined out loud.
how to run it
Run a pre-mortem
Set the scene
"It's a year from now. This plan has failed badly." Say it plainly; let it land.
Write reasons, silently
Everyone lists why it failed — a few minutes, alone, no discussion yet. Quiet writing beats loud brainstorming.
Share and group
Go round, read them out, cluster the similar ones. No defending yet.
Prioritise by likelihood × impact
Place each risk on the grid below. The top-right corner is where to look first.
Mitigate and own
For the serious, likely risks: agree what you'll do and who holds it.
prioritise
Likelihood × impact
reflect
Questions to sit with
What's the most plausible way this fails?
Which risks are we quietly hoping won't happen?
For each serious risk — what would reduce it, and who owns that?
What early signal would tell us a risk is becoming real?
resilience
Why this matters
Naming risks out loud, early, is a mark of bold, accountable governance — and of an organisation that plans for the ups and downs rather than being surprised by them.
A pre-mortem gives everyone permission to voice the doubt they were keeping polite about. That candour, done kindly, is what makes a plan robust.