Guide / Resources / Cashflow Forecasting

Core tool

Cashflow Forecasting

see the cash trough before you hit it

GuideMoneyIntentional

what it is

See the cash trough before you hit it

You can have a budget that predicts a surplus and still run out of cash. A budget tells you how much income and expenditure you expect over the year; a cashflow forecast tells you when the money actually lands in — and leaves — your bank account. It shows your most likely balance month by month, so you can act before a shortfall arrives. This is the short version of the full Embrace Finance deck and its worked spreadsheet.

£0overdrawnJanAprJulOctDec
A budgeted year-end surplus that still goes overdrawn in October and November — the cash trough a budget alone can't show you.

budget vs cashflow

Two different questions

A budget asks: how much?

The total income you expect to earn and the total expenditure you expect to incur over a period. It can show a healthy surplus.

A forecast asks: when?

When that money will actually hit the bank. Timing is everything — a surplus on paper can still mean an empty account in a lean month.
Opening balancethe bank balance at the start of the month
+
Incomereceipts expected this month
Expenditurepayments due this month
=
Closing balancecarries forward as next month's opening

how to build it

From budget to forecast

Take your budget, lay it out month by month, and place every receipt and payment in the month it really moves.

1

Start from the budget

Bring in expected income, expenditure and the resulting surplus or deficit (or estimate them if you have no budget).

2

Add opening and closing balance rows

These turn a budget into a cashflow.

3

A column for each month

One per month across the period you're forecasting.

4

Schedule by real-world timing

Place each receipt and payment in the month it hits the bank — not when it's earned or incurred.

5

Be prudent when unsure

Assume income at its latest likely date and expenditure at its earliest.

6

Enter the opening balance from your bank statement

Then let each month's closing balance carry forward to the next month's opening.

7

Check it

Do the totals reconcile to the budget, and does the closing position match the cash? If not, find out why.

how far ahead

Horizon and rhythm

Keep it rolling, and tighten the increments when things are tense.

Twelve months, rolling

Forecast at least twelve months ahead — the horizon trustees need to confirm you're a going concern. Each month, update to reality and add a month to the end.

Weekly or daily when precarious

When cash is tight, forecast in shorter increments — but it's intense work, so make sure it's peer-reviewed and supported.

Going concern

An accounting assumption that you'll keep operating for the foreseeable future, usually twelve months. Your cashflow forecast is the key evidence behind it.

questions to ask

Be curious about the numbers

Read a forecast in three layers — what, so what, now what.

01

What are the numbers?

Are the balances positive? How low do they get, and how soon?

02

So what does that mean?

Are we solvent? Does this need corrective action?

03

Now what do we do?

Pull income forward, push spend back, or arrange an overdraft?

what to watch for

Common mistakes

Head in the sand

Assuming it will all work out, and not forecasting at all.

Counting money you don't have

Including target income that hasn't been secured yet.

Optimistic timing

Assuming receipts land sooner — and payments later — than they really will.

Leaving it too late

Seeing a problem coming but not acting while there's still room to move.

resilience

Why this matters

A resilient organisation is Intentional — it asks 'what if?' and 'what else?' about its financial future. A cashflow forecast turns that question into a month-by-month picture, and gives you time to act while you still have options. If a serious shortfall looms, take advice early and keep communication with funders and staff honest.

A note

This is a plain-language summary, not professional advice. UK charity finance rules change — check the current Charity Commission guidance, and get qualified advice for your own situation.

Read the full deck — this page distils a longer resource from Liz Pepler · Embrace Finance.