Guide / Resources / Backcasting

Core tool

Backcasting

start from the future, work back

ToolPurposeDecisive

what it is

Start from the future, work back

Most planning starts from now and pushes forward — which tends to give you more of the present. Backcasting flips it: picture the resilient organisation you want to be in two years, then work backwards to find what has to be true along the way, and what to start now.

work backwards from the futurenowstart here3–6 monthsfirst steps6–12 monthsbuilding18–24 monthsin place2 yearsresilient future

Work backwards from the future to find the first steps you can take this week.

how to use it

Work it backwards

1

Picture the future

Two years out, what does resilient look like for us? Be specific — describe it as if it's already true.

2

18–24 months

For that to be real then, what must be in place by 18–24 months?

3

6–12 months

And for that, what needs to be underway within 6–12 months?

4

3–6 months

What are the first moves in the next 3–6 months?

5

Now — pick 3–5

Choose three to five things to start now. Concrete, ownable, this-quarter things.

reflect

Questions to sit with

01

What does resilient look like for us in two years — in plain, specific terms?

02

What must be true 18–24 months out for that future to be reachable?

03

What's the gap between that and where we are today?

04

What are the three to five things we could start now?

resilience

Why this matters

Backcasting pairs naturally with Three Horizons: it turns the preferred future (H3) into the transition steps (H2) and the moves you make now.

A distant goal is easy to defer. Backcasting turns it into next week's to-do list — which is the only version of a plan that actually changes anything.